Upcoming Walnut Harvest
California kicked off last season with a crop estimate of 670,000MT, but the final figure came in noticeably lower at 600,000MT. That shortfall sent prices soaring and completely changed the rhythm of the global market. Many long-standing Californian customers, including a good number here in Australia, looked to China for the first time, shifting either part or all their buying away from California. In the end, California’s total exports dropped by 22% year-on-year, with shipments to Australia down by 36%.
Shifts on the Ground and Looking Ahead
As the season wore on and demand drifted elsewhere, prices began to soften. But by that stage, California had already lost ground, and buyers were settling into new supply channels. The new crop is officially forecast at 710,000MT, and all signs point to excellent quality thanks to a mild Californian summer and strong growing conditions. With almost no carry-over from the 2024 crop, the market may stay a little tight in the short term, even with a larger harvest expected.
The forecast for China is projected to remain similar to last years - between 5.8million to 6million metric tonnes. Xinjiang's production is projected to increase due to the expansion of cultivation areas in the region, as well as technical improvements. Paper shelled walnuts are expected to account for 90% of projected totals.
The Big Question?
The real unknown is how quickly demand will return. Will buyers who turned to other origins come back to California straight away, or will growers need to adjust pricing further to win them back? It will take several weeks into the new season to see where pricing lands and how supply and demand balance out.
What this means for the Australian Market?
For the Australian market, the outlook is one of cautious optimism. Supply from California should improve as the new season gets underway, and the quality is tipped to be excellent. Early on, tight availability may keep prices a little firm until fresh shipments arrive, and it remains to be seen whether competition from Chinese walnuts will continue to hold sway.
In short, Australian wholesalers can expect strong quality, a bit more breathing space on supply as the season progresses, and a lively few months as the market settles into its new rhythm.