Chilli Market Report

Chilli continues to shape global flavour trends, underpinning everything from everyday meals to bold, regionally inspired cuisines. Demand remains strong across food manufacturing, foodservice, and retail, and with tightening supply conditions emerging, forward planning has never been more critical.

This update provides early insight into upcoming harvests, planting trends, quality outlooks, and market dynamics, helping you make informed purchasing decisions and secure supply ahead of the season.

Global Market Overview
Recent easing of US tariffs on Indian-origin products has coincided with a seasonal transition across key growing regions. The Indian monsoon, which dominated much of the subcontinent through summer, has now moved south into Kerala and southern India. As a result, temperatures in central and northern regions are cooling and skies are clearing, supporting improved crop development conditions.

However, the delayed retreat of the monsoon has pushed back chilli pod maturation by approximately four weeks. This shift is expected to impact availability timing rather than overall crop health.

More significantly, chilli planting acreage has reduced sharply year-on-year, with estimates ranging from 30–55% lower depending on region and variety. Grower confidence was undermined last season by weak pricing, heavy cold-storage inventories, and forced selling at reduced levels. This has discouraged planting in the current cycle and marks a clear turning point in the market.

Key takeaway: the era of sustained low chilli prices appears to be over. Buyers should plan accordingly and ensure adequate forward cover.

Supply, Demand & Pricing Outlook

• Sowing is now largely complete across major producing regions in India.
• Export demand has strengthened, adding pressure to already reduced supply.
• Prices across most varieties are trending upward and are currently expected to rise by
  15–20%, with further inflation possible later in the season.

Origin Specific Update
India
Planting reductions are particularly notable across key varieties. The current crop is progressing from vegetative growth into fruit formation, with no major disease pressure or crop damage reported at this stage. Quality outlook remains positive.

Carryover stocks are lower than last year, and cold-storage inventories have been drawn down more quickly over the past two months. Prices have continued their upward trajectory since 20 August 2025, reflecting reduced supply and stronger demand fundamentals.

Next harvest period: February–March 2026

China
The Chinese chilli harvest has now been completed, with total output estimated at approximately 5% lower than last season.

• Around 40% of the crop has already been sold by farmers.
• Carryover stocks of oleoresin paprika are higher than at the same point last year.

In the short term, prices are expected to remain relatively stable, supported by available inventories. However, reduced production levels may influence longer-term pricing as stocks are worked through.

Next harvest period: October–November 2026


Planning Ahead
With reduced planting, delayed maturity in some origins, and firming global demand, chilli markets are entering a structurally tighter phase. Availability risks and price volatility are expected to increase as the season progresses.

Now is the time to start planning. Forward purchasing and early engagement can help secure continuity of supply, manage cost exposure, and ensure access to preferred origins and varieties.

For tailored availability updates, quality expectations, and arrival timings, please reach out and begin planning your chilli requirements for the year ahead.